Thailand: Foreign Business Confidence Index (FBCI)
JFCCT and UTCC conducted FBCI (Foreign Business Confidence Index) in Jan-Feb 2021 (1st Quarter 2021). It demonstrates how the international community sees the Thai economy’s present situation and development over the next six months. Note that the analysis below is my interpretation of things – not an official JFCCT standpoint.
- The index is presently 16.4 on a scale of 0-100, indicating fragile confidence.
- Despite opinions pointing to a slow recovery, the future confidence index strengthens by 26.9 points to 43.3. The change is a hopeful indication that confidence is growing.
- Overall, the economy appears to have bottomed out, except for tourism, which is expected to decline. The situation is expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next six months, despite a slow economic recovery. Unfortunately, the effects of the government’s stimulus measures are not yet materialising where it matters: purchasing power and profitability.
- Professor Termdham Sitthilert of UTCC (University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce) presented and shared the breakdown of FBCI results.
- 119 samples from 30 foreign chambers of commerce were collected in Jan-Feb 2021.
- The survey shows very clearly, as known already, that the Thai economy is worse than in 2020.
- All 22 opinions are worse (the majority of responses).
- “Overall Thai economic situation”: 88% worse, 10% same, 1% better.
- 86% or responses says that members profit is worse than last year (11% same, 3% better). This demonstrates how far-reaching the negative impact on members has been.
- The future (next six months):
- Of all 22 opinions, 17 are the same and 5 are worse (the majority of responses).
- “Overall Thai economic situation” is expected to get worse or stay the same by 72% (40% worse, 32% same and 29% better).
- Tourism is expected to worsen or stay same by 82% (48% worse, 34% same and 18% better).
- Purchasing power is expected to worsen or stay the same by 78% (46% worse, 32% same and 22% better).
- Members’ profits are expected to worsen or stay the same by 69% (38% worse, 30% same and 32% better).
- There are, of course, large differences between industries, but the survey does not go into such details.
- Government’s support needed – top three
- Relaxation of Covid-19 measures for more flexible business operation.
- Accelerate the opening of the country in a safe manner.
- Measures to increase purchasing power.
- The next survey (2nd Quarter) will take place in April-May.
Please see the survey HERE.